Industry Observation

Since 2023, the global gemstone market has presented a complex and diversified development trend. Despite multiple macroeconomic challenges, high-end gemstone categories, especially rare colored gemstones and top-grade jadeite, have maintained strong growth momentum. In contrast, the mid-to-low end market faces certain inventory destocking pressures and price fluctuations. Meanwhile, technological innovation, particularly the application of artificial intelligence in gem identification, supply chain management, and marketing, is becoming a new engine for the industry's future development.

High-End Market: Rare Gemstones Defy Downturn

According to the latest report from the Confédération Internationale de la Bijouterie, Joaillerie, Orfèvrerie, des Diamants, Perles et Pierres (CIBJO), the global transaction value of high-end gemstones increased by approximately 6.5% in 2023. Among these, the 'Big Five' precious gemstones—ruby, sapphire, and emerald—showed the most outstanding performance. For instance, at Christie's Hong Kong autumn auction in 2023, an 8.24-carat 'pigeon's blood' Burmese ruby ring fetched a staggering US$24.5 million, significantly exceeding its estimate. At Sotheby's Geneva auction, a 15.04-carat Kashmir sapphire also sold for over US$18 million. These high-value transactions clearly demonstrate that the investment and collection value of top-tier rare gemstones remains robust during economic downturns, even serving as a safe-haven asset for some high-net-worth individuals.

“We have seen unceasing demand from clients for gemstones with rarity, origin certification, and exceptional quality,” said Ms. Vickie Sek, Chairman of Christie's Asia Jewellery Department, in an interview. “Especially unheated colored gemstones with authoritative certificates such as GIA and GRS command significant premiums.”

In the jadeite market, prices for icy and glass-like imperial green jadeite continue to rise, particularly in mainland China and Southeast Asia. The persistent tight supply of Burmese jadeite rough further pushes up the prices of top-quality finished products. According to data from the Myanmar Gemstone Trading Centre, the average price of high-quality jadeite rough increased by nearly 10% in 2023.

Mid-to-Low End Market: Destocking and Price Adjustments

In contrast to the booming high-end market, the mid-to-low end gemstone market faces significant challenges. Influenced by declining global consumption, geopolitical uncertainties, and inventory accumulation, sales and prices of some mid-to-low end colored gemstones, semi-precious stones, and ordinary quality jadeite and Hetian jade have experienced varying degrees of decline. For example, in major processing centers in India and Thailand, there has been noticeable inventory buildup for gemstones like tanzanite and garnet, forcing some merchants to resort to price reductions and promotions.

“The mid-to-low end market is indeed under pressure, as consumers are more cautious about spending on non-essential items,” noted Mr. Chatchai Sarimongkol, President of the Thai Gemstone Association. “However, this also prompts the industry to undergo structural adjustments, focusing more on design innovation and brand building to enhance product added value.”

Technology Empowerment: AI Leading New Industry Transformation

Notably, artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology are playing increasingly vital roles in the gemstone industry. In gem identification, AI-assisted identification systems can significantly improve identification efficiency and accuracy through image recognition, spectroscopic analysis, and other technologies, reducing human error. For instance, the Gemological Institute of America (GIA) in California, USA, is actively exploring the application of AI in diamond 4C grading and colored gemstone origin tracing, aiming to achieve a more objective and standardized evaluation system in the future.

In supply chain management, blockchain technology is used to build transparent and traceable gemstone trading platforms, ensuring the legal origin and ethical sourcing of gemstones. Everledger, a company based in London, UK, provides end-to-end traceability services for global jewelers, from mine to retail, effectively combating illegal gemstone trading such as 'blood diamonds'.

Furthermore, AI also shows immense potential in marketing and consumer experience. Virtual try-on, personalized recommendations, and big data-driven market trend forecasting are helping jewelers reach target customers more accurately and improve sales conversion rates.

Future Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities Coexist

Looking ahead to 2024, the global gemstone market will remain full of variables. The investment attributes of high-end gemstones will continue to attract high-net-worth individuals, but their price fluctuations also require close attention. The mid-to-low end market is expected to gradually stabilize after inventory digestion and demand recovery. Technology, especially the deep integration of AI, will be key to driving industry transformation, upgrading, and enhancing competitiveness. In the future, companies that embrace technology, focus on sustainable development, and innovate brands will gain an advantage in the fierce market competition.

(Data sources: CIBJO, Christie's, Sotheby's, GIA, Myanmar Gemstone Trading Centre, Everledger public reports and industry interviews)